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Taken together, the key results of the new analysis suggest that the global adolescent fertility rate has declined from about 89/1000 girls aged 15 to 19 years in 1990 to about 69/1000 girls aged 15 to 19 years in 2018. More than half of the global total fertility rate (TFR) decline occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The largest declines in TFR (about 15/1000 girls) occurred in South Central Asia and in Asia and the Pacific, with smaller declines in Africa and in the Western Hemisphere. Most of the remaining declines (about 11/1000 girls) occurred in Europe, North America, and Oceania. About 57% of the global total fertility rate decline occurred in un-mixed populations (i.e., those not including the effects of migration, which was estimated at 1.17 million in 2005). A smaller but still considerable part of the global TFR decline (about 40%) occurred in population groups considered to be at different stages in the contraceptive transition. The global TFR decline was accompanied by a decline in the cumulative risk of first birth; however, this decline seems to have leveled off in several regions. Moreover, over half of the cumulative risk of first birth is still concentrated in a few regions.

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If current contraceptive use trends continue and even accelerate, it is possible that by 2030 about 57% of adolescent girls aged 15 to 19 years will have used modern methods (57% of all births) and about 43% of adolescent girls aged 15 to 19 years will have had their first birth. More than half of these births will have been unplanned (i.e., without contraceptive use) and of those that will have been planned, more than two-thirds will have been unintended (i.e., with nonuse of modern methods). About one-third of these births will have been terminated.